Cuban President Raul Castro (right) and President Barack Obama attend a baseball game between the Tampa Bay Rays Rays and West Indian national team in Havana on March 22, 2016. Ismael Francisco AP
PEDRO ROIG
In the days of greater deprivation, which are in Cuba almost everyone, and hope it is lost that generated the diplomatic opening of President Obama with the military dictatorship in Cuba. The controversial "thaw" that would boost the economy sinks in the recurring failure of "irreversible socialism", a kind of ideological parasite, sentenced to generate misery.
Little lasted the mirage of the arrival of investors, who can be counted on the fingers. For the Castro family, clinging to the dynastic succession, the absence of investors coupled with the collapse of huge subsidy of Venezuela is catastrophic.
THE GENERAL CASH ran out
According to a study by the Institute for Cuban and Cuban American (ICCAS), University of Miami, economic aid from Venezuela to Cuba is estimated at about $ 10 billion annually. This figure included the $ 3.500 million barrels of oil (115,000 bpd). Around $ 5.860 million health program known as Barrio Adentro and other infrastructure projects. It is known that the grant of Venezuela to Cuba has fallen by more than 50%.
Cuba's economy is so poor that its GDP (GDP) of about $ 6.5 billion Domestic Product is the third of the ruined economy of Greece. It is obvious that the loss of aid from Venezuela is having a devastating impact on the island. And the possibility that Cuba opposite one second Special Period, similar to that suffered when the Soviet Union collapsed analyzed.
They say that General Raul Castro has been prepared for the eventual fall of the help of Venezuela. False. He has met with Nigerians, Russians and Iranians for oil without tangible results. Cuba's socialist economy is a parasite incapable of producing the basic needs of the population.
Cuba has to import more than 70% of food consumed by the people at a cost of over $ 2.000 billion. The salaries of the state bureaucracy (80% of the working population), and social security withdrawals totaling approximately $ additional 3,500 million.These are estimated by economists and veterans figures do not include the costs of education, health, transportation and infrastructure repairs in the country. Cuba is a country in ruins and the situation is getting worse every day.
BAY OF PIGS AND DEATH Dredge
Life on the island is desperate and repression against those fighting for their civil rights and liberties is savagely cruel. For gerontocracy clinging to power, Obama's support change-fraud gave encouragement to the international image of the Communist worn absurdity of Cuba. But the intransigence of the military dictatorship has them in an impasse because the communist system is not reformable and is unaffordable.
Now they put their hopes on Obama can lift the embargo. Josefina Vidal, director for America of the Cuban Foreign Ministry said on his Twitter account that "regular flights from the United States reach their real potential when finished the travel ban to Cuba, in force by the blockade." So far, commercial aircraft do not carry the number of passengers expected. The service offered in many hotels is low quality and most visitors will not return with the detestable exception of those seeking cheap sex. The brothel "irreversible socialism" is open 24 hours a day.
The harsh reality tells us that Obama has no time in the White House, nor have the votes in Congress to cancel the embargo. Less than 46 days for national elections, no one in Washington will lift a finger to lift the embargo. Then comes the investiture of the new president and the slow assessment of its foreign policy. Let us not forget that the bureaucracy has two speeds: or moves slowly or not moving quietly.
CUBA: MYTH AND REALITY
The party did not last long embrace with Washington. The economic disaster of the fall of subsidy Venezuela is evident and is ending 2016 as one of the most difficult for the military dictatorship of the Castro brothers with certainty that 2017 will be worse years.
Senior researcher at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami.
OPINION ON CUBA
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